Oscars 2026: F1’s Unexpected Surge Threatens Sinners and Anderson’s Epic
As the 98th Academy Awards approach, two WB heavyweights seem poised for Best Picture nods. But a surprise summer blockbuster is gaining momentum, shaking up the race and leaving voters and fans on edge.
With the 98th Academy Awards just around the corner, Warner Bros. is entering the season with a powerhouse slate. Two films, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, have emerged as clear favorites, widely expected to secure nominations for Best Picture. Yet, a new contender is making waves, and it ’s not the prestige drama many anticipated.
Blockbuster F1 Gains Unexpected Oscar Momentum
This summer’s high-octane hit F1, starring Brad Pitt and directed by Joseph Kosinski, is rapidly gaining traction among Academy voters. While it may lack the traditional awards pedigree, insiders say it’s resonating with older members of the Academy, who are calling it
“good old-school entertainment ”
. Despite not carrying the same critical prestige as its competitors, F1’s broad appeal could land it a coveted Best Picture slot.
Given the crowded field of acclaimed films released in 2025, the possibility of F1 breaking through has the potential to upend expectations. If the buzz holds true, the final nominations could deliver some real surprises when they’re announced next week.
How the Top Contenders Stack Up
Here’s a quick look at the frontrunners:
F1 (Dir. Joseph Kosinski): IMDb 7.7, Rotten Tomatoes 82% (critics) / 97% (audience)
Sinners (Dir. Ryan Coogler): IMDb 7.5, Rotten Tomatoes 97% / 96%
One Battle After Another (Dir. Paul Thomas Anderson): IMDb 7.8, Rotten Tomatoes 94% / 85%
Each film brings something different to the table, from the adrenaline-fueled spectacle of F1 to the emotional depth of Sinners and the sweeping drama of Anderson’s latest epic. The competition is fierce, and with so many strong contenders, the race is wide open.
Oscar Nominations: Key Dates and Details
Voting for nominations closed on January 16, and anticipation is building as the industry waits for the official announcement. The final list of nominees will be revealed on January 22, with Danielle Brooks and Lewis Pullman set to present live from the Samuel Goldwyn Theater at 5:30 a.m. Pacific Time. The event will be broadcast on national television and streamed across the Oscars ’ digital platforms.
Fans and industry insiders alike are eager to see which films make the cut, especially with such a competitive field this year. The ceremony promises to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.
Release Timing Could Impact Sinners’ Chances
While Sinners is widely expected to rack up nominations—potentially even setting a new record—its early release date could pose a challenge. Historically, films that debut closer to awards season, particularly in the fall, tend to have an edge with voters. This so-called recency bias means that movies like One Battle After Another and A24’s Marty Supreme, both released later in the year, may benefit from being fresh in voters’ minds.
Despite this, Sinners has received a boost from high-profile supporters, including Christopher Nolan, who recently hosted a special screening as part of the film’s awards campaign. Whether this will be enough to overcome the timing disadvantage remains to be seen.
Share your own Oscar predictions and join the conversation as the countdown to the nominations continues.
F1 is now available to stream on Apple TV. Sinners and One Battle After Another are streaming on HBO Max.