Stranger Things and Squid Game just proved Netflix can't predict its next hit

Netflix loves the myth that its recommendation machine can see the future. But the streamer’s two crown jewels, 'Stranger Things ' and 'Squid Game', are awkward reminders that lightning tends to strike outside the spreadsheet.

The numbers that made Netflix believe its own hype

Start with the scoreboard. 'Squid Game' racked up 265.2 million views in its first 91 days. 'Stranger Things' kept going and going until it became Netflix’s most-watched series overall with more than 1.2 billion lifetime views. When you stack stats like that, commissioning book adaptations and lookalike projects feels less like gambling and more like ordering off a menu.

The algorithm is not the hero of this story

Here’s where the neat story gets messy. On 'The Town with Matt Belloni', sociologist Violaine Roussel — author of 'Data Driven Hollywood ' — said the quiet part out loud: a lot of Netflix’s signature wins weren’t dreamed up by an algorithm. They caught fire in the culture first and only became glowing data points after the fact.

Roussel called out 'Squid Game' as a prime example — and referenced something labeled 'Adolescence ' alongside it. Fair flag: that second reference is fuzzy; the way it was invoked sounded more like a placeholder for another breakout than a clear, specific title.

That’s striking because Netflix has spent years building an empire on microscopic viewing intel. The library is sliced into hyper-specific micro-genres, then matched to equally granular behavior. Every click, pause, binge, and rewatch feeds a system that’s excellent at classifying what already exists. It’s great at spotting familiarity; it’s not built to bottle a phenomenon before it happens. As Roussel laid it out, this is a feedback loop: past winners shape what you are shown next and what gets commissioned next. Which is why Belloni’s question landed — the streamer’s biggest bragging rights don’t actually validate the data-first mythology.

What the two megahits actually did

• 'Stranger Things' turned weekends into appointment viewing. People cleared schedules. The Hawkins aesthetic escaped the show and flooded the marketplace: Nike sneakers, Lego sets, Coca-Cola tie-ins. Kate Bush’s 'Running Up That Hill' surged back onto the charts. Suddenly, retro nostalgia felt brand-new again.
• 'Squid Game' showed up with subtitles, schoolyard games, and zero interest in old Hollywood assumptions — and detonated anyway. A roughly $21 million budget translated into about $900 million in value for Netflix. The success helped redirect billions toward Korean storytelling and even nudged viewers to pick up bits of the language between episodes.

The punchline

Yes, Netflix’s data machine is phenomenal at extending yesterday’s success and making calculated bets that look smart on paper. But the two shows that turned Netflix into something people plan their calendars around were cultural waves first and clean charts second. That’s the irony Belloni zeroed in on.